16 October 2012

October Trade updates (+15%) and the problem with retail traders...

Hi traders. After a long weekend away in the beautiful Peak District it's great to see some of our trades have finally moved.

AUDCAD is currently up 2% (assuming 1% risk here and moving forward) and I have just added in again on the higher low at a smaller percentage risk.

Gold short finally shook a leg and broke out of its range as commodities took a hammering yesterday and was up around 2%. I've taken some profits off the table as it reached September's low, the rest will be trailed on the daily.

Silver has moved as Gold did. I previously mentioned if you are trading both to spread your risk as highly correlated.

Dow Jones Industrials was up around 3%, my stop is at break even and I've taken some profit of the table as price retraced to the previous 4 year highs. The NASDAQ, S&P500 have also diverged on various indicators suggesting a rally.

Now, for the problem with retail traders and their mentality. Last month's trades that I posted produced a 20% return (risking 1%), so far in October the trades I've posted have made around 15%. Obviously, not everyone will have traded those as different markets and not managed them in the same way. There is a big difference between ANALYSING and TRADING. Analysis has no money on the table and is emotionless which is why returns always sound fantastic. However, trading brings emotion as you're now dealing with your hard earned capital. Whilst I have strict management techniques I close trades early. Sometimes it is the right decision, sometimes it isn't. The fact is I need to give myself a reward and pat myself on the back for all the hard work and dedication I put in. For me, that's banking some money so I leave the month positive. Is it right or wrong? Who cares! We're here to make money remember!! You have to know yourself and adapt to it. Too often in life we are controlled by external influences which leads to irrational decision making.

One thing I've learnt in trading is that you cannot be too prescriptive. Well, at least this fits with my own personality. The markets change so you have to have a breadth of knowledge and tools so you too can change with the market.

Remember the key is not whether you are right or wrong but:


'how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong' 

Oh and the problem with retail traders is this: Through the trade ideas that I've posted they've returned a decent amount of reward to risk. I know some of my mentees and traders have been catching these moves, on their own analysis which is even better. What you'll notice is the low frequency of trades for the past couple of months. However, I still get messages from people who send me their trade ideas which is fine. I reply asking 'why are you looking to trade more, why not just stick to the style I've taught you?' Their reply: 'oh because I haven't found many trading opportunities'. Most of you can see where I am going with this.....why are you trading? To make money or to just trade?

My philosophy in trading is find a style that suits you, it could be high frequency or low frequency - it doesn't matter. Once you find what you are comfortable with then increase your risk per trade rather than trying to get into more and more trades. This is what I have found works for the majority of currently successful and profitable trades I have mentored over the years.

Happy trading!


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