1 October 2012

Best September Trading Opportunities +17%

As the market works out the macro direction for the last quarter of the year, here's a list of the best trading opportunities in September. I know some of you capitalised on some of these moves so well done; I did blog about most of them! :) They totalled +17% for September, bear in mind you may have taken other losing/winning trades, etc. I even missed two of these trading opportunities, even though they met my rules perfectly, as I was away in the States. Let's hope October presents similar opportunities. 

 NZDUSD Long 05.09.2012 – The buyers tested the upper resistance level twice suggesting a possible breakthrough to the upside. The first possible retracement to the 38.2% retracement of the year long wedge supported a case for buyers to come into the market. The RSI divergence and low tested bar confirmed this. If traded on the daily timeframe this trade resulted in +6%, if traded on the 4hour timeframe this resulted in +8%


AUDUSD Long 05.09.2012 – Clear momentum ring low trade as price double bottomed with July’s low and the 38.2% Fib retracement from June’s low to August’s swing high. The Stochastic divergence also confirmed the closing price divergence in the recent 8 bar range. If traded on the daily timeframe this trade resulted in +3.5%, if traded on the 4hour timeframe this resulted in +6%




NYMEX Crude Oil Short 14.09.2012 – Many factors led to the potential short trade at $98, including: false breakout from August’s high and 61.8% retracement, RSI and Stochastic divergence, shooting star candle bar/high test bar and a seasonal bias to go short mid-September. Depending on the management of this trade, a stop could be at +2% or you may have exited on the support level 100dsma which resulted in +6%




Exxon Mobil Long 04.09.2012 – This Dow Jones Industrial Average stock is in a strong uptrend. Waiting for the pullback to the 50dma, the low test bar false breakout, RSI and Stochastic divergence confirmed the bullish bias which resulted in +3.5%


Past results are not indicative of future performance. Trading leveraged products such as FX and CFDs carries a high level of risk and is not suitable for everyone. You should seek professional financial advice before trading and investing. 
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3 comments:

  1. PiersC3 October 2012 at 08:18

    Hi Jitan, great post as ever. I missed the NZD/USD trade, in looking at your chart can I ask a question? What is the thinking behind your 21, 50 and 200 Moving Averages being expontial, while your 100 and 500 are simple? Had I had a 500 SMA on my chart I think I'd have spotted this trade, whereas all my MAs are exponential. Grateful for an insight into this!

    Many thanks & kind regards, Piers

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  2. Jitan Solanki4 October 2012 at 01:06

    The EMA is the best all rounder to be honest. But commonly the higher the number the better the SMA is as it gives equal weighting to the sample size. Plus I know some macro fund guys who use this. Generally SMA's are best used for MA crossovers (which I don't actively trade by the way).

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    Replies
    1. PiersC4 October 2012 at 03:15

      Thanks for the response, Jitan, I appreciate it, fascinating food for thought. I see 500 SMA back testing in my future...

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