I'm finally back in the UK after a visit to the States and am glad to see our Euro position going well. First part has been scaled off at the large option expiry number 1.3300 and stop has been moved to 1.3155, still locking in a 2-3% gain (assuming 1% risk).
My 20 year seasonal analysis is still providing me a bias on my trades, as it did with Euro (posted in: http://qitrading.blogspot.co.uk/2012/12/euro-long-probabilities-and-seasonals.html).
Gold looks interesting for a long as it comes off its 1.272 Fib extension and the Stochastics diverge, as my good friend and trading partner Rob Colville also suggest so: http://robtrading.blogspot.co.uk/2012/12/gold-long-anyone.html. However, we may see a lower low to the 1.618 Fib extension where the RSI will also diverge. This is why I have taken this trade with half my usual risk.
EURCAD has hit its average monthly gain for December (sample size of 20 years). January suggests a negative month for this pair. Technically, we have RSI divergence, 2 resistance levels and the 1.272 Fib ext. I have gone short on the 60m high test but you could wait for an end of day setup.
Charts below
Have a very Merry Christmas and a fantastic New Year!
Hi Jitan, thanks for your excellent analysis-I have enjoyed your posts all year, Can I please ask where do you look to get your information on seasonals? Merry Christmas, Anne
ReplyDeleteHi Anne. I hope you had a great Christmas. I've done my own seasonal analysis based on 20 years of data across all markets. However, as a starter you could use Equity Clock which provides some seasonal biases. Have a great New Year :)
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