The end of week trading session proved to be quite choppy due to the Jackson Hole summit. The volatility started early in London trading as the USD was dumped across the board. Most traders analysing the speech concluded a firmly dovish stance. Gold has been the best pure QE3 play and is now an interesting chart coming into mid-September. All eyes on 13 September where a final decision is due depending on this week's data. I'm personally wary of entering end of day trades in week one and two of September due to a raft of central bank announcements, the QE3 decision on 13 September, the German ruling court decision on the ESM on 12 September and the recent downgrade of Catalonia to junk status. Looks set to be a volatile September. I will try to keep you posted on any trades I am close to entering but am currently flat until the market sentiment is more clear.
Trades I'm in:
EURNZD long and NZDUSD short.....managing these trades from a while back
Trades I'm looking at:
AUDUSD/Gold Long (seasonal bias is bullish mid-September). We obviously have to bear in mind the horrible data that keeps coming out of China that has been weighing on AUD the past month. This also coincides with EURAUD/GBPAUD short positions due to strong rallies.
DJIA/Stock Indices short.....seasonal bias is short due to US election year and we have a potential Dow Theory sell signal (will post during the week).
FX charts with explanations:
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